Chris Christie’s Last Election

Gov Christie Official Photo 20091208_gov_medium

Current New Jersey Governor Chris Christie

In less than forty-eight hours, Republican New Jersey Governor Chris Christie will be winning re-election for a second term as the Capo Di Capi of the Garden State.  The only big questions facing political prognosticators are how many dozens of points will he win by and who will have voted for him?  Other than that, nothing much is of interest here.  Unless, you consider what happens in each of the twenty-one Legislative Districts in New Jersey a barometer of how Christie might do on the national level appealing to Democrats, Blacks and Women.

Of those three groups, Blacks are the most key to the future of Governor Chris Christie and the future of his Republican Party.   There is a modern-day political saw that “Winning Black Voters helps you win Moderate suburban Voters and they help you win Women voters.”  At least in the United States’ Northeastern states and the West Coast.  According to Politisite.com, the current major polls looking at Christie appeal to the Black vote is as such:

Fairleigh Dickinson -  Non-White – 33%
Quinnipiac University – Black -  29%

Rutgers University – Non-White – 41%

Stockton College – Black – 17.4%
 
Marist College/NBC has Christie’s approval rating among black voters at 64%

Politisite’s own analysts believe that the Black vote for Christie will be lower than each of these polls except for the Stockton College poll and the Governor will come in at 19%.

Chris Christie Sign 3Based on how this campaign has proceeded over the past year and especially the past month or so, Christie will benefit from a sizable increase of support in the Black community but nowhere near 30% of their votes.  Please consider that the Governor has pretty much avoided campaigning in cities not named Newark and has layed off pushing his best campaign issue of School Choice for at least the past six months.  He also committed a major faux pas by not visiting or taking a lead role on fixing Trenton Central High School’s mold and dilapidation problems which came to a head over the summer.  The fact that this school is in New Jersey’s own Capital City and is located two miles from Christie’s Statehouse office makes this almost astonishing.

Christie will gain from his “hands off” approach towards the recent U.S. Senate Special Election and subsequent election of Democratic Newark Mayor Cory Booker.  Many Black voters may feel that Christie helped Booker get his Senate seat, but this may not be enough to make them go out of their way to vote for Christie. Especially when their own Democratic Party has done a poor job reminding them that there is an Election. The New Jersey and national Democratic Party surrendered this Gubernatorial campaign to Christie in the spring.  The Democratic Governors Association has spent less than $5,000 supporting its own Democratic candidate, Barbara Buono, in this Election.  Meanwhile, this same organization has spent over $6 million on the Democratic Governor candidate in Virginia.  According to SMG Delta, a Virginia-based political tracking firm, Christie will likely have spent nearly $12 million dollars on television and radio ads alone compared to Buono’s $2.1 million

President_Barack_Obama_Tours_Storm_Damage_in_New_Jersey_7 WHITE HOUSE PIC

President Barack Obama and Governor Chris Christie speak with Hurricane Sandy victims in New Jersey.

One major point that has to be made is how Christie has avoided the word “Republican” as much as possible and being associated too closely to his Party.  According to the Star-Ledger’s Matt Friedman, Christie has only publicly supported 3 Republican candidates (out of 120) with cable TV spots.  There are more than a few Republican Assembly and Senate District candidates who are quite unhappy with the lack of public support that they are getting from their own Republican Governor. One such candidate told me off-the-record that they literally had to push their way through a crowd to even shake Christie’s hand at a campaign stop in the heart of their District.  A mild “Republican backlash” could materialize tomorrow when many Republicans go in the voting booth and then remember Christie’s consistent criticisms of his own Party and his perceived disassociation from it.  These voters could very well be called “Non-Tea Party-Tea Party Republicans.”

The politically interested and especially Right-leaning voters should keep an eye on New Jersey and the numbers behind the results that are released in the weeks ahead.  You may find a roadmap for a potential Christie Presidential run or the template for a Rand Paul or Scott Walker to win in the Northeastern U.S. and the West Coast.  What you won’t find is a playbook from the past.

© 2013 The Willams View

About the Author:

Jennifer Williams is an accomplished writer, interviewer and critical reviewer having written about or covered many subjects of interests. Having graduated from Tulane University, La Salle University and New York University, Kevin's career background in Politics and Civic Affairs, Public Relations, Marketing, Non-Profit Management and Filmmaking have helped inspire much of her past artistic and creative efforts. Jennifer directed and co-produced the documentary feature film, Fear Of A Black Republican. Her latest film, Rebel Song, looks at a middle-aged American Celtic Rock band and the music inspired by the Irish Republican Army (IRA). Rebel Song is expected to be released in 2014. In addition to The Williams View, Jennifer is also the Entertainment and Politics Editor for Politisite, a Contributing Writer for Townhall, Breitbart's Big Hollywood, Liberatchik and Hip Hop Republican. Jennifer has been interviewed or profiled across many Media outlets such as the Washington Post, Christian Science Monitor, Philadelphia Inquirer, Kansas City Star, L.A. Weekly; Current TV, Christian Broadcasting Network, Huffington Post Live, Al Jazeera and BET News; radio programs ranging from National Public Radio, Voice of Russia - American Edition, the Mark Davis Radio Show, the Chris Stigall Show, the Steve Deace Show, the Bob Grant Show, Victoria Taft Show, to the Michael Eric Dyson Show and many others.

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